Why Aggregate Demand Forecasting Fails Mid-Market Distributors
Forecasting at the product category level hides the SKU-location pairs that actually run out first.
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Forecasting at the product category level hides the SKU-location pairs that actually run out first.
Dirty transaction records distort every forecast downstream. Fixing data at the source versus compensating in the model.
We interviewed 14 supply chain planners about their Monday morning routine. The pattern was depressingly consistent.
Service level x lead time variance sounds clean in theory. Real warehouse data tells a different story.
Carrying cost + opportunity cost + warehouse space + working capital. Most teams only count one of these.
Year-over-year multipliers collapse when your demand shape shifts mid-season. What ML models do instead.
MAPE fails on intermittent demand. WMAPE favors high-volume SKUs. sMAPE has its own edge cases. Here's how to choose.
What data fields actually matter, which ones planners routinely leave dirty, and how to clean them without a data team.
When supplier lead times fluctuate 40%, fixed reorder points stop working. Probabilistic lead time modeling explained.
Pushing inventory to the wrong DC first is easy to do and expensive to unwind. How location-level forecasting changes the calculus.
Most companies under 500 employees have one planner doing the work of three. What we've learned from working with them.
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